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Ireland’s nationalist Sinn Féin party overtook its political rivals to win 21.1 per cent in Friday’s general election, according to an exit poll, in a photo finish to a tight race.
The conservative Fine Gael party of Taoiseach Simon Harris, which had been losing momentum in recent days, was in second on 21 per cent while the centrist Fianna Fáil, which many polls had predicted would be the best performer, had 19.5 per cent.
The result appeared a virtual tie since the poll, conducted by Ipsos B&A, has a margin of error of 1.4 percentage points.
Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin’s director of elections, called it a “phenomenal result” for the main opposition party, which won the most first-preference votes at the last election in 2020, but has plummeted in the polls in the past year.
“Sinn Féin may emerge from these elections as the largest political party,” he told broadcaster RTÉ. However, the pro-Irish unity party has no firm allies and may struggle to form a coalition.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have both vehemently ruled out any government with Sinn Féin, a party that was once the mouthpiece of IRA paramilitaries in Northern Ireland’s Troubles conflict and wants to reunite the island.
The small leftist Social Democrats party scored 5.8 per cent; Labour had 5 per cent. The Green party, a junior member of the outgoing coalition, had 4 per cent, according to the poll, carried out on behalf of the Irish Times, broadcasters RTÉ and TG4 and Trinity College Dublin.
Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns was unable to vote after giving birth on election day.
Fine Gael has been in power since 2011 and is seeking a record fourth mandate. Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Greens have governed in coalition since 2020.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael — who could seek to form a new government with a partner or partners — had urged voters to back a return of the current coalition amid the risk of transatlantic trade shocks under US president-elect Donald Trump.
Sinn Féin had, however, said voters should oust the two parties that have dominated Irish politics for a century and deliver sweeping change to end the country’s housing crisis.
Under Ireland’s proportional representation system, voters rank candidates according to their preference. As such, the way that lower-preference votes are transferred between parties will determine the final outcome.
Vote counting proper will begin on Saturday but a final result could take days, followed by potentially weeks of coalition negotiations.