Puerto Rico risks losing 18.3% of GDP to climate change, study says

Climate change will sap 18.3% of Puerto Rico’s economic activity unless it takes substantial steps to adapt to expected changing weather and environment, a study says.

Without these steps Puerto Rico will lose $379.3 billion in gross domestic product it otherwise would have had from 2021 through 2050, according to a study released last week by the Committee of Experts and Advisors on Climate Change, part of the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources.

The committee projected the losses stemming from additional hurricanes, rising sea levels, erosion, and what it projects as 15% less annual rainfall, all stemming from climate change. The projection assumes a two-degree Celsius increase in global temperatures from thosei n the mid-19th century.

The study didn’t consider the impact of heat waves on the island because this is more difficult to predict.

The future of Puerto Rico’s economic activity remains a topic of discussion between the Puerto Rico Oversight Board and holders of Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority bonds, who are negotiating a deal in the PREPA bankruptcy.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration says global temperatures are already 1.36 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 period. Temperatures are continuing to rise and some observers say average temperatures are likely to go above a two degrees Celsius increase before stabilizing.

“Without a direct, urgent and viable policy by the government, Puerto Rico’s economic growth pattern will worsen significantly due to climate change,” the report says.

The committee’s report synthesizes four earlier reports, including a plan to deal with the problems submitted to the local legislature in April. The legislature didn’t give significant consideration to the plan’s 156 courses of action and 808 strategies.

“Every economy is facing environmental changes and has varying degrees of preparedness,” Puerto Rico Clearinghouse Principal Cate Long said. “Puerto Rico excels at creating studies of which the vast majority are never implemented. Since the Puerto Rico legislature did not take up the proposals in this study, it’s unclear if the oversight board would incorporate any findings in their economic or fiscal plans.”

But Puerto Rico received more than $120 billion from Congress to strengthen its infrastructure, Long said. “The vast majority of Caribbean islands were not so lucky and will suffer with diminished roads, bridges, schools etc.”

The plan projects losses of $1.475 trillion to “productive” infrastructure in addition to the impact on the economy.

The report also provides estimates of impacts of global temperature increases of three and four degrees Celsius.

Climate change will lead to 9,493 deaths on the island through 2050, the report estimates, without mitigation and excluding the impact of heat waves.